We return to Stats Corner. How many points does it take to win every week? We all acknowledge that it comes down to a little bit of luck. It’s whomever the schedule gods default you to year over year the same week. Take Matovina this past week. Historically he’s averaged 91.1 points per game, however he threw down 124.5 against RJ (6th highest in franchise history) but runs into the buzzsaw of RJ’s finest performance yet.

Welcome back to Stats Corner. I won’t try and pretend that the inspiration of this weekly Message Board Post isn’t the “Skeptical Football” column found weekly on fivethirtyeight.com. Despite its flaws it provides interesting insights into the NFL. In the inaugural column this year the author Benjamin Morris (twitter handle @skepticalsports, I reccommend you follow) created a heat map/matrix of records and historicalplayoff probabilities. Link. This week I bring that to you for Bad Newzs.